Technology Futures Inc.
2015 Telecom Scenario - Free Download!
Ms. Carrie Vanston, Media Relations Director
(323) 436-0314

Ms. Debra Robison, Publications Sales
(800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898

2015 Telecom Scenario

The Local Exchange Network in 2015

AUSTIN, Texas, March 2002-Technology Futures, Inc., an internationally-recognized leader in telecom forecasting, announces the publication of a new report entitled The Local Exchange Network in 2015, authored by Lawrence K. Vanston (President, TFI). This report gives forecasts for 2015 for broadband data rates, the impact of wireless, and the North America local exchange network. The research was sponsored by the Telecommunications Technology Forecasting Group (TTFG), a consortium of telephone companies comprised of Bell Canada, BellSouth, Qwest, SBC Corporation, Sprint, and Verizon.

According to author, Lawrence Vanston, "With the ups and downs of the telecom industry, it's easy to lose one's long-term vision. This study provides a view of the future stripped clean of short-term transition issues. Unless things go badly wrong, ILECs will have largely completed the transition to a packet-switched, broadband, optical network by 2015." He continues, "Although the pace of this transformation may disappoint many, it will be truly immense, providing tremendous opportunities across industries and wonderful benefits to consumers. We hope this report will help people refocus their thinking about the future of telecommunications."

We would be pleased to have this report reviewed by your publication and/or be cited for articles examining the subject matter. Dr. Vanston would also be glad to be interviewed and quoted for articles relating to the subject matter. The 23-page report is also available as a FREE DOWNLOAD to you and your readers at You are welcome to include the link on your website or in written material.

This report is based on published and unpublished forecasts by TFI that reflect logical extensions of current trends and are consistent with technology evolution principles.

    Predictions for 2015:
  • The typical household subscribes to broadband service at 24 Mb/s to 100 Mb/s.
  • Medium and large businesses access the network directly with fiber at data rates from 2.4 Gb/s to 40 Gb/s.
  • Fiber dominates the outside plant, comprising 100% of the interoffice network, 97% of the feeder network, and 95% of the distribution network.
  • Switching is 100% packet-based on ATM and IP switches.
  • Almost 70% of North American households no longer have a standard wireline connection and use wireless or computer telephony instead.
  • The interoffice network is entirely fiber, with dense wave division multiplexing used on most routes.
  • Of the $355 billion of network investment in place in 2001, well under 10% is still in use in 2015.

Who should read this report?

This report would be of interest to technology planners, telecom planners, strategic planners, information systems/technology managers, local exchange carriers, competitive LECs, interexchange carriers, Internet service providers, telecom equipment manufacturers, regulatory personnel, and depreciation professionals.

A table of contents and a list of exhibits follow this press release.

Author Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D., is an internationally-recognized authority in the use of technology forecasting in the telecom industry. His research reports and forecasts are used and referenced extensively worldwide. Dr. Vanston's views on telecom trends were summarized in a full-page interview by the Wall Street Journal entitled "Consultant's Call: Lawrence Vanston Makes Some Pretty Bold Predictions for the Future of Telecommunications. He Has Been Right Before

Technology Futures, Inc. helps organizations plan for the future. Drawing on proven, quantifiable forecasting methods and strategic applications, we customize our approach to the technology, financial, and marketing issues facing our clients. Our services include consulting, research, and education.

We are always happy to comment on the subjects of technology and telecom trends. A partial list of TFI citations from many major publications can be found at TFI News.

PRESS CONTACT-Please contact Ms. Carrie Vanston by telephone at (323) 436-0314 or by email at with questions about the report and/or to arrange an interview with Dr. Vanston or other technology and telecom experts at TFI. If you need assistance immediately and Ms. Vanston is unavailable, please contact the corporate offices in Austin at (512) 258-8898 or (800) 835-3887.

PURCHASING CONTACT FOR YOUR READERS-The report is available to you and your readers as a FREE DOWNLOAD at Readers interested in purchasing a print copy of the report should contact Debra Robison, Technology Futures, Inc. at (800) TEK-FUTR or (512) 258-8898, fax (512) 258-0087, or send email to The 23-page report is priced at $25 in North America and $40 elsewhere. Thank you for your attention.

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2015 Telecom Scenario

The Local Exchange Network in 2015

Table of Content
Residential Customers
Business Customers
The Local Exchange Network
General Architecture
The Outside Plant
Baseband Copper
Circuit Equipment
Switching Equipment

List of Exhibits

1.The World of 1986
2.North American Online Households by Data Rate- Percentage of All Households
3.Adoption of 3G Wireless Technology- percentage of North American Population
4.Narrowband Access Lines- North American Households, 2015
5.The Local Exchange Network- 2015
6.State-of-the-Art Metro DWDM System- 2015
7.Percentage of Access Lines on Copper Feeder Cable
8.Deep Fiber Systems in Common Use in 2015
9A.Older PON Systems without DWDM
9B.Modern PON Systems with DWDM
10.Percentage of Distribution Distance on Copper
11.Diagram of an Eight-Fiber by n-Wavelengths WDM Switch
12.Survivors from SONET Investment in Place in 2010
13.Percentage of Households with 5 Mb/s & Below Broadband Access on DSL and Deep Fiber
14.Percentage of Access Lines Served on Circuit Switches
15.End of Switching Eras- Year Use of Switching Technology Fell Below 1% of Access Lines (Major U.S. Companies)

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