Technology Futures Inc.
Ms. Carrie Vanston
Media Relations Director
(323) 436-0314


Residential Broadband Forecasts

AUSTIN: Technology Futures, Inc., announces the publication of a new white paper giving forecasts for residential broadband data rates. Authored by Lawrence K. Vanston (President, TFI), the paper provides long-term forecasts supporting the view that U.S. broadband adoption is on track and that, barring major business or regulatory mistakes, long-term optimism for broadband is justified.

According to Dr. Vanston, U.S. residential broadband adoption has been remarkably rapid compared with other consumer technologies and services, although from current commentary, one might not know it. Despite the economy, the and telecom troubles, regulatory disputes, loss of competitors, and higher prices, over 10% of U.S. households subscribed to broadband at the end of 2001, up from about 5% in 2000. Further, although a few countries have higher penetration rates and many analysts had forecast higher penetration for the United States, actual 2001 results exceeded TFI's baseline forecast from 2000.

In the United States, residential broadband access is offered by telephone companies via digital subscriber line (DSL) service, by cable television companies via cable modems, and by wireless carriers via terrestrial links or satellite. This white paper forecasts the size of the total U.S. residential broadband access market, as shown in the attached figure ("Exhibit 11: U.S. Broadband Households by Data Rate"). Forecasts are also given on how bandwidth requirements will increase over time, also shown in the figure. These are important because upgrading facilities to serve evolving broadband requirements efficiently will be key to competitiveness in the broadband age.

"Residential Broadband Forecasts" is based on published and unpublished forecasts by TFI that reflect logical extensions of current trends and are consistent with technology evolution principles. The research supporting the white paper was sponsored by the Telecommunications Technology Forecasting Group (TTFG), a consortium of telephone companies comprised of ACS, Inc., Bell Canada, BellSouth Telecommunications, Qwest, SBC Communications, Sprint, and Verizon.

We would be pleased to have the subject matter and related graphs be considered for an article on the broadband market subject. Dr. Vanston would also be glad to be interviewed and quoted for articles relating to the growth of broadband and/or other telecom industry trends.

FOR A COPY OF WHITE PAPER: "Residential Broadband Forecasts" is available as a FREE DOWNLOAD at You are also welcome to include the URL on your website as a research source for your readers.

Author Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D., is an internationally-recognized authority in the use of technology forecasting in the telecom industry. His research reports and forecasts are used and referenced extensively worldwide. Dr. Vanston's views on telecom trends were summarized in a full-page interview by the Wall Street Journal entitled "Consultant's Call: Lawrence Vanston Makes Some Pretty Bold Predictions for the Future of Telecommunications. He Has Been Right Before."

Technology Futures, Inc. helps organizations plan for the future. Drawing on proven, quantifiable forecasting methods and strategic applications, we customize our approach to the technology, financial, and marketing issues facing our clients. Our services include consulting, research, and education.

To learn more about TFI, we invite you to peruse our website. A partial listing of TFI 's citations from many major publications can be found at "TFI News."

Ms. Carrie Vanston, Media Relations Director
(323) 436-0314,

Please contact Ms. Vanston with questions about the white paper and/or to arrange an interview with Dr. Vanston or other technology and telecom experts at TFI. If you need assistance immediately and she is unavailable, please contact the corporate offices in Austin at (512) 258-8898 or (800) 835-3887.

Thank you for your attention.

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August 2002
Technology Futures, Inc.
13740 Research Boulevard, Building C
Austin, TX 78750
(800) 835-3887 or (512) 258-8898
Fax: (512) 258-0087