'; include("head.php"); ?> Publications Overview | Telecom Reports | Technology Forecasting Guides | Futures' Features | Future Impacts | White Papers, Articles, & Complimentary Reports  | Communications Reference Book | Archive

[ordering online? -- please see our return/refund policy]


Technology Forecasts for Local Exchange Switching Equipment
Ray L. Hodges & Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D.

Description  [back to top]

This report addresses issues related to the current trend of ATM/IP packet switching and its impact on the embedded digital circuit switches of incumbent LECs. The report also includes a technology description and assessment of optical switching. It provides an update and comparisons to earlier forecasts conducted by Technology Futures, Inc. in 1986, 1989, 1992, 1994, and 1997, which were remarkably accurate in identifying the technology substitutions and predicting the pace of change.

Key Findings From This Latest TFI Report  [back to top]

Who should read this report?  [back to top]

Table of Contents  [back to top]

Chapter One
Chapter Two
Switching Technology
  • ATM and IP Switching
Chapter Three
LEC Transition Strategies
  • Transition Alternatives
Chapter Four
Forecasts for Digital Switching and ATM/IP
  • The Evolution of Circuit Switching
  • Forecasts for the Adoption of Digital Switching
  • Comparisons to Previous Forecasts
  • Forecasts of Modular Upgrades to Digital Switches
  • Categories of Switch Modules
  • Distribution of Investment
  • Historical Evolution of Switch Modules
  • Recent Updates to Existing Digital Switch Architectures
  • Composite Lives for Digital Switches
  • Forecast of Processor/Memory Upgrades
  • Forecast of Switch Fabric Upgrades
  • Forecast of Trunk Interface Upgrades
  • Forecast of DLC Interface Upgrades
  • Forecast of Baseband Line Interface Upgrades
Chapter Five
The Adoption of Packet Switching
  • Forecast for ATM/IP Switching Adoption
  • ATM Implementation Alternatives
  • Summary
Appendix A
Substitution Analysis and the Fisher-Pry Model
  • Forecasting with Fisher-Pry
  • Extensions of Fisher-Pry
  • Projecting the Market Share of the Old Technology
  • Projecting the Number of Units
  • Relationship to Product Life Cycles
  • Forecasting Depreciation Lives
  • Company Forecasts
Appendix B
Forecasting with Multiple Substitution
Appendix C
Multiple Substitution Analysis for Digital Switching

List of Exhibits  [back to top]

2.1Growth in Data Traffic
3.15ESS Evolves with 7R/E Packet Driver
3.2Nortel's View of the ATM/IP Future
3.3Lucent's View of the ATM/IP Future
4.1Switching Technology Shares
4.2Switching Technology Shares--Percentage of Access Lines
4.3Multiple Substitution Analysis of Switching Technologies
4.4Comparison to 1989, 1994, and 1997 SPC Switching Forecasts
4.5Comparison to 1989, 1994, 1997, and 2000 Digital Switching Forecasts
4.6Generic Switching Architecture
4.7Nortel DMS-100 Architecture
4.8Lucent 5ESS Architecture
4.9Digital Switching Investment Distribution--Results from Various Studies
4.10Evolution of Nortel DMS-100
4.11Evolution of the Lucent 5ESS
4.12Nortel S/DMS SuperNode Architecture
4.13Lucent 5ESS-2000 Architecture
4.14Digital Switching--Modular Retirement Analysis
4.15Percentage Survivor Curves for Modular Categories of Digital Switching
4.16Composite Survivor Curve for Digital Switching
4.17Survivor Curves for Digital Switch Modules
4.18Baseband Digital Switch Terminations--Percentage of Access Lines
4.19Baseband Digital Switch Terminations--Digital and Analog Percentage of Access Lines
5.1Adoption of ATM Switching--Percentage of Equivalent Access Lines
5.2ATM Switching--Percentage of Equivalent Access Lines
5.3AEarly Scenario--ATM Equivalent Access Lines by Implementation Alternative
5.3BLate Scenario (Direct Transition)--ATM Equivalent Access Lines by Implementation Alternative
5.3CLate Scenario (Primary Fabric Transition)--ATM Equivalent Access Lines by Implementation Alternative
5.4AEarly Scenario Non-ATM Switching Survivor Curves--Percentage of Equivalent Access Lines
5.4BLate Scenario (Direct Transition) Non-ATM Switching Survivor Curves--Percentage of Equivalent Access Lines
5.4CLate Scenario (Primary Fabric Transition) Non-ATM Switching Survivor Curves--Percentage of Equivalent Access Lines
5.5ATM Implementation Projections--Percentage of ATM Equivalent Access Lines
5.6Switching Technology Shares--Late ATM Scenarios

Pricing Information  [back to top]

March 2000, 84 pages, Sponsored by the TTFG, ISBN 1-884154-14-X

US $95 Electronic Delivery
US $95 Hard Copy Mail Delivery
US $95 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada

Texas residents add 7.25% (Austin, Texas 8.25%) sales tax.
All orders are shipped via UPS ground
Call for TTFG member prices and volume discounts.