|FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE||
Ms. Carrie Vanston,
Media Relations Director
Ms. Debra Robison,
(800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898
AUSTIN. Texas, July 2001-Technology Futures, Inc., an internationally-recognized leader in telecom forecasting, announces the publication of a new report entitled The Impacts of Competition and Technology on Local Exchange Outside Plant Assets, authored by Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (President, TFI). This report quantifies the impact of broadband technology and wireless competition on the ILECs' copper cable plant. It complements TFI's earlier report on switching assets. The research was sponsored by the Telecommunications Technology Forecasting Group (TTFG), a consortium of telephone companies comprised of Bell Canada, BellSouth, Qwest, SBC Corporation, Sprint, and Verizon.
According to author Dr. Vanston, "DSL technology is allowing the ILECs to compete with cable companies in providing residential broadband access. In the short run, this increases the utilization of some copper pairs, but the overall impact of broadband is to reduce the amount of copper used. First, it reduces the need for second lines, which is a problem for ILECs because not all broadband customers choose DSL. Second, as customers demand higher broadband data rates in the future (see graph), ILECs will be forced to replace most distribution copper with fiber, regardless of which access technology is used, be it VDSL, passive optical networks, or something else."
Dr. Vanston continues, "By including forecasts of all the important factors, we get a comprehensive picture of what is really happening to copper in the ILEC outside plant in the long term. This is the only way you can realistically estimate the impact of all these changes on the value of ILEC investment."
The report also quantifies the substitution of wireless for wireline voice service, forecasting the displacement of both ILEC access lines and usage. In addition, it assesses potential competition for cable voice and the Internet, including VoIP.
Source: Technology Futures, Inc.
The study provides reasoned, quantitative information about the likely pace of change. These forecasts have implications for many types of decisions ranging from R&D to market strategy to pricing. Some of the key findings that may be of particular interest to a broader audience can be found below.
This report would be of interest to the following groups: local exchange carriers, competitive LECs, cellular carriers, PCS carriers, wireless suppliers, interexchange carriers, cable MSOs, Internet service providers, telecom equipment manufacturers, regulators, depreciation experts, and property tax experts.
An expanded table of contents and a list of exhibits follow this press release. We would be pleased to have this report reviewed by your publication and/or be quoted for articles examining the subject matter. Dr. Vanston would also be glad to be interviewed and quoted for articles relating to the subject matter.
Author Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D., is an internationally-recognized authority in the use of technology forecasting in the telecom industry. His research reports and forecasts are used and referenced extensively worldwide. Dr. Vanston's views on telecom trends were summarized in a full-page interview by the Wall Street Journal entitled "Consultant's Call: Lawrence Vanston Makes Some Pretty Bold Predictions for the Future of Telecommunications. He Has Been Right Before."
Technology Futures, Inc. helps organizations plan for the future. Drawing on proven, quantifiable forecasting methods and strategic applications, we customize our approach to the technology, financial, and marketing issues facing our clients. Our services include consulting, research, and education. A partial list of TFI citations from many major publications can be seen at "TFI News."
PRESS CONTACT-Please contact Ms. Carrie Vanston by telephone at (323) 436-0314 or by e-mail at email@example.com with questions about the report and/or to arrange an interview with Dr. Vanston or other technology and telecom experts at TFI. If you need assistance immediately and Ms. Vanston is unavailable, please contact the corporate offices in Austin at (512) 258-8898 or (800) 835-3887.
PURCHASING CONTACT FOR YOUR READERS-Readers interested in purchasing the report should contact Debra Robison, Technology Futures, Inc. at (800) TEK-FUTR or (512) 258-8898, fax (512) 258-0087, or send e-mail to firstname.lastname@example.org The 154-page report is priced at $4,500 in North America and $4,515 elsewhere. Thank you for your attention.
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|1.2||Depreciation Recommendations for Metallic Loop Cable|
|1.3||Local Exchange Network Architecture|
|2.1||Percentage of Working Feeder Lines|
|2.2||Feeder Forecast, Percentage of Total Lines, with Substitution Universes|
|2.3||Fiber Feeder Forecast, Percentage of Working Feeder Lines|
|2.4||Comparison of 1997 Fiber Carrier Forecast with Actual Data and 2000 Forecast|
|2.5||Metallic Feeder Survivors|
|3.1||Households with High-Speed Access -- Maximum Assured Data Rates|
|3.2||Minimum Availability & Adoption of High-Speed Access|
|3.3||Average Percentage Distribution Distance of Fiber|
|3.4||Distance Assumptions for Fiber-in-the-Loop Forecasts (Applied to Distribution Only)|
|3.5||Average Percentage Loop Distance on Fiber|
|3.6||Distance Assumptions for 2000 TFI Fiber-in-the-Loop Forecasts (Applied to Entire Loop)|
|3.7||ADSL Households -- Middle Scenario|
|3.8||Average Percentage Loop Distance on Fiber -- Comparison of 1997 and 2000 Forecasts|
|4.1||Metallic Loop Carrier Survivors and Depreciation Lives (Technology Substitution Only)|
|4.2||Combining Feeder and Distribution Metallic Survivors Forecasts -- Early Distribution Scenario (Technology Substitution Only)|
|4.3||Combining Feeder and Distribution Metallic Survivors Forecasts -- Middle Distribution Scenario (Technology Substitution Only)|
|4.4||Combining Feeder and Distribution Metallic Survivors Forecasts -- Late Distribution Scenario (Technology Substitution Only)|
|4.5||Combined Loop Metallic Survivors Forecasts (Technology Substitution Only)|
|4.6||ILEC-Provisioned Access Lines|
|4.7||Indexed Utility Remaining per Existing ILEC-Provisioned Access Line|
|4.8||Loop Copper Survivor Forecasts (Technology Substitution and Competitive Impacts) -- Middle Scenario|
|4.9||Loop Copper Survivor Forecasts (Technology Substitution and Competitive Impacts)|
|4.10||Metallic Cable -- Estimated ARLs (1/1/2001)|
|4.11||Indexed Utility Remaining per Existing ILEC-Provisioned Metallic Access Line|
|5.1||U.S. Adoption of Home PCs and Online Services -- TFI Base Forecast|
|5.2||U.S. Adoption of High-Speed Access -- TFI Base Forecast|
|5.3||U.S. Adoption of High-Speed Access -- TFI Forecasts|
|5.4||U.S. Adoption of High-Speed Access - Percentage of Online Households|
|5.5||Examples of Consumer Adoptions (Gompertz Model)|
|5.6||Historical Comparisons for Home High-Speed Access Adoption|
|5.7||Minimum Availability & Adoption of High-Speed Access|
|5.8||Minimum Availability & Adoption of High-Speed Access|
|5.9||Modem and DSL Speeds|
|5.10||Performance Improvement Rates|
|5.11||Households with High-Speed Access -- Maximum Assured Data Rates|
|5.12||Households with High-Speed Access -- Maximum Assured Data Rates|
|5.13||Households with High-Speed Access - Average Available Bandwidth|
|6.1||Logic for Voice Access Lines|
|6.2||Forecast of Wireless for Wireline Access|
|6.3||Market Penetration of New Telecom Competitors|
|6.4||Wireline Primary Voice Households by Provider|
|6.5||ILEC-Provisioned Voice Access Lines -- Percentage of Wireline Households|
|6.6||ILEC-Switched Voice Access Lines -- Percentage of Wireline Households|
|6.7||Primary Voice Access Market Shares -- Percentage of Households|
|6.8||ILEC Voice Access Lines to Households|
|6.9||Logic for Data Access Line Forecasts|
|6.10||U.S. Adoption of High-Speed Access -- TFI Base Forecast|
|6.11||Online Households by Primary Data Access Type|
|6.12||Market Shares for Low-Speed, Dedicated Data Lines|
|6.13||ILEC-Switched Narrowband Access Lines|
|6.14||Households with High-Speed Access -- Maximum Assured Data Rates|
|6.15||Market Shares for High-Speed Access Lines, 10 Mb/s & Below|
|6.16||Market Share Assumptions for High-Speed Access Lines, 10 Mb/s & Below|
|6.17||ILEC-Provisioned Access Lines|
|6.18||Logic for Voice Usage per Active Wireline Access Line|
|6.19||Wireless for Wireline Forecast|
|6.20||Households by Wireline/Wireless Type|
|6.21||Base Wireline Voice Usage Left after Impact of Wireless|
|6.22||Voice Usage Displaced by e-communications (Among Online Users)|
|6.23||Base Wireline Voice Usage Impacts of e-communications|
|6.24||Base Wireline Voice Usage Left After Combined Impacts|
|6.25||Logic for Combining Access & Usage Forecasts|
|6.26||ILEC-Switched Narrowband Access Lines|
|6.27||Usage Remaining per Narrowband Access Line (No Revenue for High-Speed Data)|
|6.28||Usage Remaining per ILEC-Switched Narrowband Access Line (No Revenue for High-Speed Data)|
|6.29||Indexed Utility Remaining per ILEC-Switched Narrowband Access Line|
|6.30||Indexed Utility Remaining per ILEC-Provisioned Access Line|
|6.31||Indexed Utility Remaining per ILEC-Provisioned Metallic Access Line|
Technology Futures, Inc.
13740 Research Boulevard, Building C
Austin, TX 78750
(800) TEK-FUTR (U.S. and Canada)
(512) 258-8898, Fax: (512) 258-0087