|FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE||
Ms. Carrie Vanston,
Media Relations Director
Ms. Debra Robison,
(800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898
AUSTIN, Texas, March 2003-Technology Futures, Inc., an internationally-recognized leader in telecom forecasting, announces the publication of its new report entitled "Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Review & Update," authored by Lawrence K. Vanston (President, TFI) and Ray L. Hodges (Senior Consultant, TFI). This report reviews recent TFI forecasts for the North American local exchange network, covering switching, circuit equipment, and outside plant. The TFI forecasts provide a reasoned, realistic view of the technological and competitive changes occurring in the telecommunications industry. The report also includes TFI's latest recommendations on depreciation lives for local exchange telephone plant, accounting for technology displacement and loss of access lines due to competition.
The research was sponsored by the Telecommunications Technology Forecasting Group (TTFG), a consortium of telephone companies comprised of Bell Canada, BellSouth Telecommunications, Qwest, SBC, Sprint, and Verizon.
According to co-author Lawrence Vanston, "Across the network, technology change and competition are accelerating obsolescence and reducing the economic life of telco investments. This is happening in spite of regulatory uncertainty and the recent downturn in the telecommunications industry." He notes that, "Broadband adoption, wireless usage, and local competition continue to grow rapidly."
Co-author Ray Hodges adds, "Although down from the record highs of previous years, ILECs continue to invest significant sums in the local exchange network. And they will have to continue to invest to remain competitive, especially as wireless, cable telephony, and broadband continue to erode the traditional voice market."Key Findings From This Latest TFI Report:
A table of contents and a list of exhibits follow this press release.
We would be pleased to have this report reviewed by your publication and/or be cited for articles examining the subject matter. Dr. Vanston and Mr. Hodges would also be glad to be interviewed and quoted for articles relating to the subject matter.
Co-author Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D., is an internationally-recognized authority in the use of technology forecasting in the telecom industry. His research reports and forecasts are used and referenced extensively worldwide. Dr. Vanston's views on telecom trends have been included in such prestigious publications as The Wall Street Journal, Telephony, America's Network, and Lightwave.
Co-author Ray L. Hodges brings over 30 years of telecom expertise and experience to his work at TFI, including 25 years with GTE Telephone Operations. His interests are focused on emerging wireless technologies and markets and their impacts on the public telecom network. Mr. Hodges' views and the results of his research have been cited by such publications as Telephony, America's Network, Lightwave, Wired, Inter@ctive Week, and Wireless Systems Design.
Technology Futures, Inc. helps organizations plan for the future. Drawing on proven, quantifiable forecasting methods and strategic applications, we customize our approach to the technology, financial, and marketing issues facing our clients. Our services include consulting, research, and education.
We are always happy to comment on the subjects of technology and telecom trends. For a list of citations by our staff members, please see "TFI News".
PRESS CONTACT: Please contact Ms. Carrie Vanston by telephone at (323) 436-0314 or by email at email@example.com with questions about the report and/or to arrange an interview with Dr. Vanston, Mr. Hodges or other technology and telecom experts at TFI. If you need assistance immediately and Ms. Vanston is unavailable, please contact the corporate offices in Austin at (512) 258-8898 or (800) 835-3887.
PURCHASING CONTACT FOR YOUR READERS: Report details and ordering information are available at http://www.tfi.com/pubs/tlenrev.html. Readers interested in purchasing a copy may also contact Debra Robison, Technology Futures, Inc. at (800) TEK-FUTR or (512) 258-8898, fax (512) 258-0087, or send email to firstname.lastname@example.org. The 130-page report is priced at $495 in North America and $510 elsewhere.
Thank you for your attention.
# # #
Technology Futures, Inc.
13740 Research Boulevard, Building C
Austin, TX 78750
(800) 835-3887 or (512) 258-8898
Fax: (512) 258-0087
Table of Contents
List of Figures
2.1 Substitution of Fiber Optic Cable for Metallic Cable in the Feeder Plant
2.2 Substitution of Fiber Optic Cable for Metallic Cable in the Distribution Network
2.3 Substitution of Advanced for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable
2.4 Adoption of Optical Transport and Access Network Equipment
2.5 Substitution of ATM/IP for Local Circuit Switching
3.1 U.S. Residential Switched Access Lines (Narrowband), Millions of Lines by Type
3.2 U.S. ILEC-Provisioned Residential Switched Access Lines (Includes UNEs and Resale), Millions of Lines--Narrowband and Broadband
4.1 Percentage of Residential Access Lines on Fiber and Metallic Distribution Cable
4.2 Example of Application of Forecasting to the Estimation of Depreciation Lives Survivor Curves for Metallic Distribution Cable
5.1 U.S. Local Switching Technologies, 1950-2020
5.2 Generic Local Switch Architecture
5.3 Survivor Curves for Digital Switch Modules (Not Accounting for Competitive Impacts)
5.4 Voice Versus Data Traffic
5.5 Substitution of ATM/IP for Local Circuit Switching
5.6 Combined Survivor Curve for Digital Switching
6.1 Survivor Curves for Circuit Equipment Categories
6.2 Substitution of SONET for Pre-SONET Equipment
6.3 Combined Survivor Curves for DLS and T-Carrier Transport
6.4 Surviving Value and Depreciation Lives for ATM, DWDM, and SONET Transport Equipment
6.5 Life-Cycle for DSL Equipment Based on Adoption of VDSL and Other FITL Solutions
6.6 Combined Survivor Curves for DSL Equipment
7.1 Substitution of Fiber for Metallic Cable in the Feeder Plant-Base Scenario
7.2 Substitution of Fiber for Metallic Cable in the Feeder Plant Comparison of Base and Accelerated Scenarios
7.3 U.S. Online and Broadband Households
7.4 U.S. Broadband Households by Nominal Data Rate
7.5 Broadband Minimum Availability24 Mb/s & Above
7.6 Substitution of Fiber Optic Cable for Metallic Cable in the Residential Distribution Network
7.7 Comparison of Distribution Fiber Forecast to Relevant Service Availability Requirements--Early Scenario
7.8 Comparison of Distribution Fiber Forecast to Relevant Service Availability Requirements--Middle Scenario
7.9 Comparison of Distribution Fiber Forecast to Relevant Service Availability Requirements--Late Scenario
7.10 Addition of Fiber in Mixed Fiber/Metallic Systems to the Late Scenario Fiber Forecast
7.11 Combined Survivor Curves for Feeder Cable (Underground)Base Scenario
7.12 Combined Survivor Curves for Feeder Cable (Underground)Middle Scenario
8.1 Age-Survivor Curve for Fiber Optic Cable (Physical Mortality Only)
8.2 Survivor Curve for Installed Base of Fiber Optic Cable (Physical Mortality Only)
8.3 Substitution of Advanced Fiber for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable--Based on Distribution Fiber Adoption Scenarios
8.4 Mortality and Technology Survivor Curves for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable--Technology Substitution Based on Middle Scenario Distribution Fiber Adoption (Not Accounting for Competitive Impacts)
8.5 Combined Survivor Curves for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable Technology Substitution Based on Middle Scenario Distribution Fiber Adoption
8.6 Substitution of Advanced Fiber for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable Based on Interoffice and Feeder Fiber for Metallic Substitutions
8.7 Mortality and Technology Survivor Curves for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable--Technology Substitution Based on Interoffice and Feeder Fiber for Metallic Substitutions (Not Accounting for Competitive Impacts)
8.8 Combined Survivor Curves for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable Technology Substitution Based on Interoffice and Feeder Fiber for Metallic Substitutions
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