This report forecasts the increase in broadband data rates and discusses the applications, especially IP Video, driving the increase. It also covers the current leaders --South Korea, Japan, and Italy. By 2006, U.S. broadband penetration will likely reach 50% and a shift to data rates of 24 Mb/s to 100 Mb/s will have begun. By 2010, 75% broadband penetration is likely, with 10% to 20% of households subscribing to very high-speed-broadband.
Broadband will eventually be adopted by most households as websites become increasingly designed for broadband, e-mail attachments (e.g., photo collections) grow large, and new services such as VoIP become widely adopted.
U.S. residential broadband will soon demand higher data rates than currently provided, probably in the range of 6-10 Mb/s, which is already available in leading broadband countries.
Bandwidth increases reflect the general tendency for demand to increase along with computing power and memory. They will also reflect the demand for specific services such as IP video that require more bandwidth. TFI forecasts IP video penetration of 40% in 2010, with high definition IP video penetration of 20%.
In the 2006 timeframe, a shift to much higher data rates in the range of 24 Mb/s to 100 Mb/s is likely to begin. So far, only a few places have access at these rates, notably Japan.
Leading broadband countries are a full generation ahead of North America. Japan and Korea are already rolling out the subsequent generation of services operating at 20 Mb/s and above, and have plans to complete the transition by 2010.
There are factors that favored early broadband adoption and rapid broadband progress in the leading countries. However, there is nothing unique about these countries in their need for broadband and faster rates and nothing that indefinitely precludes North America from having it available.
The results confirm TFI's scenarios for the placement of fiber optics deep into ILEC networks, extending to the home via BPONs, or very close to the home via VDSL technology. In the process, much of ILEC current investment in metallic cable will be made obsolete.