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Transforming the Local Exchange

Transforming the Local Exchange Network:
Analyses and Forecasts of Technology Change
Second Edition
Lawrence K. Vanston, Ray L. Hodges, & Adrian J. Poitras

Description
Who should read in this report?
Table of contents
Exhibits
Pricing/Ordering information

Description  [back to top]

This new report from Technology Futures provides tremendous insight into expectations for the future of current network assets -- cable, circuit, and switching -- in North America.

Capital is a dominant factor in the telecommunications industry. Total investment (plant in service) by the major U.S. local exchange carriers was $268 billion at the end of 1995. The bulk of this investment is in three general categories: the outside plant, switching, and circuit equipment. In each of these categories, tremendous changes are underway which are displacing the bulk of existing investment and making large amounts of new investment necessary.

Changes are not only being driven by advances in telecommunications technology, but also by the need for new communications services and the emergence of competition in the local exchange. These three drivers -- technology, new services, and competition -- reinforce each other and together increase the pace, magnitude, and importance of the adoption of new technology.

This comprehensive report:

Who should read this report?  [back to top]

Table of Contents  [back to top]

Chapter One: Introduction and Summary
Technology Change in the Local Telecom Infrastructure
Industry Focus
Methodology
Data Sources
The Home Market
Summary of Technology Forecasts
Estimating Equipment Depreciation Lives
Report Organization
Chapter Two: Drivers for Change
Telecommunications Act of 1996
Convergence and Competition in the Local Exchange
Internet Implications for LECs
Technology Drivers
Services Drivers
The Mass Market for Digital Services
Drivers for Increased Bandwidth
Usage by Businesses
Chapter Three: Forecasts for Fiber Adoption in the Outside Plant
Outside Plant Basics
The Adoption of Fiber Optics in the Interoffice Outside Plant
The Adoption of Fiber Optics in the Feeder Plant
The Adoption of Fiber Optics in the Distribution Plant
The Home Market
Small Business Location Services
Medium Business Location Services
Large Business Location Services
Combining the Home and Business Fiber Forecasts
Remaining Lives for Existing Outside Plant Facilities
Chapter Four: SONET Circuit Equipment
Benefits of SONET
Forecasts for SONET Adoption
Comparison to Previous Forecast
Remaining Lives for Non-SONET Equipment
Chapter Five: Forecasts for Digital Switching and ATM
The Replacement of Old Technologies by Digital Switching
Forecasts for the Adoption of Digital Switching
Comparisons to Previous Forecasts
Remaining Life for ASPC
Forecasts of Modular Upgrades to Digital Switches
Categories of Switch Modules
Distribution of Investment
Historical Evolution of Switch Modules
The Future Evolution of Existing Digital Switch Architectures
Composite Lives for Digital Switches
Forecast of Processor/Memory Upgrades
Forecast of Switch Fabric Upgrades
Forecast of Trunk Interface Upgrades
Forecast of DLC Interface Upgrades
Forecast of Baseband Line Interface Upgrades
The Adoption of ATM Switching
Forecast for ATM Switching Adoption
ATM Implementation Alternatives
Summary
Appendix A
Individual Study Area Table B Data

List of Exhibits  [back to top]

1.1The Fisher-Pry Model
1.2Interoffice Technology Shares
1.3Feeder Technologies -- Percentage of Access Lines
1.4Digital Service Availability on Fiber -- All Households & Business Locations
1.5Households Using Digital Services
1.6Home Digital Availability and Subscribers -- 1.5 Mb/s & Above
1.7Households Using Digital Services -- Minimum Competitive Data Rates
1.8Adoption of Interoffice SONET Equipment
1.9Adoption of Loop SONET Equipment
1.10Switching Technology Shares
1.11Generic Switching Architecture
1.12Digital Switching -- Modular Retirement Analysis
1.13ATM Switching -- Percentage of Equivalent Access Lines
1.14AEarly Scenario -- ATM Access Lines by Implementation Alternative
1.14BLate Scenario (Direct Transition) -- ATM Equivalent Access Lines by Implementation Alternative
1.14CLate Scenario (Primary Fabric Transition) -- ATM Equivalent Access Lines by Implementation Alternative
1.15 Avalanche Curves
1.16TFI 1997 Recommendations for Equipment Lives
2.1 Points of Interconnection and Unbundled Elements
2.2Primary Integrated Carriers in the U.S. Telecommunications Market
3.1Local Exchange Network Architecture
3.2Maximum Transmission Rates for Commercial Fiber Systems
3.3Interoffice Technology Shares
3.4Interoffice Technology Shares -- Percentage of Total Circuits
3.5Multiple Substitution Analysis of Interoffice Technologies
3.6Metallic Feeder Architectures
3.7Fiber Feeder Architectures
3.8Feeder Technologies -- Percentage of Access Lines
3.9Feeder Technology Shares -- Percentage of Access Lines
3.10Multiple Substitution Analysis of Feeder Technologies
3.11Fiber in the Loop Architectures
3.12Fiber/Coax Architectures
3.13Digital Service Availability on Fiber -- All Households & Business Locations
3.14Millions of Home and Business Locations and Access Lines (1995)
3.15Households Using PCs, Multimedia PCs, and On-line/Internet Services
3.16Households Using Digital Services
3.17Home Digital Availability and Subscribers -- 1.5 Mb/s & Above
3.18Households Using Digital Services -- Minimum Competitive Data Rates
3.19Home Digital Services -- Average Data Rate
3.20Home Digital Service Availability on Fiber
3.21xDSL Households -- Middle Scenario
3.22xDSL Households -- Late Scenario
3.23Digital Subscribers -- Small Business Locations
3.24Digital Services Availability (1.5 Mb/s & Above) -- Small Business Locations
3.25Digital Service Availability -- Small Business Locations
3.26Digital Subscribers -- Medium Business Locations
3.27Digital Service Availability on Fiber -- All Households & Business Locations
3.28Digital Service Availability on Fiber -- All Households & Business Access Lines
3.29Comparison to 1994 Interoffice Fiber Forecast
3.30Comparison to 1994 Fiber Feeder Forecast
3.31Comparison to 1994 FITL Scenarios
3.32Interoffice Copper Cable Survivors
3.33Interoffice Copper Cable Survivors
3.34Metallic Feeder Survivors
3.35Metallic Feeder Survivors
3.36Survivor Curves for Copper Cable -- All Households & Business Locations
3.37Distribution Copper Survivors, All Households and Business Locations -- 1997 Network Study
3.38Survivor Curves for Copper Cable -- All Households & Business Access Lines
3.39Distribution Copper Survivors, All Households and Business Access Lines -- 1997 Network Study
4.1Adoption of Interoffice SONET Equipment
4.2Interoffice SONET Equipment -- Percentage of Fiber Transmission Capacity
4.3Adoption of Loop SONET Equipment
4.4Loop SONET Equipment -- Percentage of Fiber Transmission Capacity
4.5Adoption of SONET Equipment Summary Percentage of Equipment on SONET
4.6Adoption of SONET Equipment -- Percentage of All Access Lines (ALs) Terminated on SONET Equipment
4.7Forecast of SONET Penetration into the Network with Likely Dates of Key Events -- 1989 Forecast
4.8Comparison to 1994 SONET Forecast -- Interoffice & Loop Combined
4.9Comparison of SONET Adoption to 1994 Forecast
4.10Non-SONET Circuit Equipment Survivors
4.11Non-SONET Circuit Equipment Survivors
5.1 Switching Technology Shares
5.2Switching Technology Shares -- Percentage of Access Lines
5.3Multiple Substitution Analysis of Switching Technologies
5.4Comparison to 1989 and 1994 SPC Switching Forecasts
5.5Comparison to 1989 and 1994 Digital Switching Forecast
5.6 Analog SPC Survivors
5.7Analog SPC Survivors
5.8Generic Switching Architecture
5.9Nortel DMS-100 Architecture
5.10Lucent 5ESS Architecture
5.11Digital Switching Investment Distribution -- Results from Various Studies
5.12Evolution of Nortel DMS-100
5.13Evolution of the Lucent 5ESS
5.14Nortel S/DMS SuperNode Architecture
5.15Lucent 5ESS -- 2000 Architecture
5.16Digital Switching -- Modular Retirement Analysis
5.17Percentage Survivor Curves for Modular Categories of Digital Switching
5.18Composite Survivor Curve for Digital Switching
5.19Survivor Curves for Digital Switch Modules
5.20Survivor Curves for Processor/Memory Units
5.21Vintage Composite Lives
5.22Actual Versus Model Technology Life Cycle Curves for Processor/Memory Units
5.23Baseband Digital Switch Terminations -- Percentage of Access Lines
5.24Baseband Digital Switch Terminations -- Digital and Analog Percentage of Access Lines
5.25Adoption of ATM Switching -- Percentage of Equivalent Access Lines
5.26ATM Switching -- Percentage of Equivalent Access Lines
5.27AEarly Scenario -- ATM Equivalent Access Lines by Implementation Alternative
5.27BLate Scenario (Direct Transition) -- ATM Equivalent Access Lines by Implementation Alternative
5.27CLate Scenario (Primary Fabric Transition) -- ATM Equivalent Access Lines by Implementation Alternative
5.28AEarly Scenario Non-ATM Switching Survivor Curves -- Percentage of Equivalent Access Lines
5.28B Late Scenario (Direct Transition) Non-ATM Switching Survivor Curves -- Percentage of Equivalent Access Lines
5.28CLate Scenario (Primary Fabric Transition) Non-ATM Switching Survivor Curves -- Percentage of Equivalent Access Lines
5.29ATM Implementation Projections -- Percentage of ATM Equivalent Access Lines
5.30Switching Technology Shares -- Late ATM Scenarios
A.1The Fisher-Pry Model
A.2Linearized Fisher-Pry Model
A.3Market Share of the Old Technology
A.4Projecting the Number of Units
A.5Fisher-Pry and Life Cycles
A.6Computing the Survivor Curve
A.7Estimating the Average Remaining Life from the Old Technology Market Share
B.1Typical Effect of Newest Technology on Previous Substitution
Typical Effect on Current Substitution of Old Technology 1 Being Displaced Faster than Old Technology 2
Typical Pattern of Two Generations of New Technologies Substituting for Two Generations of Old Technologies
B.2Illustration of a Substitution Universe
B.3Illustration of Substitution Universes for Multiple Substitutions
B.4Illustration of Substitution Universes for Multiple Substitutions with a Transition Period
C.1Multiple Substitution Analysis for Interoffice Technologies
C.2Multiple Substitution Analysis -- Interoffice Fiber
C.3Interoffice Technologies -- Fisher-Pry Plots
C.4Interoffice Fiber in the Baseband Substitution Universe -- Percentage of Circuits
C.5Interoffice Fiber in the Baseband Substitution Universe -- Historical and Regression
C.6Interoffice Fiber in the Digital CXR (Metallic) Substitution Universe -- Percentage of Circuits
C.7Interoffice Fiber in the Digital CXR (Metallic) Substitution Universe -- Historical and Regression
C.8Interoffice Fiber in the Analog CXR Substitution Universe -- Percentage of Circuits
C.9Interoffice Fiber in Analog CXR Substitution Universe -- Historical and Regression
D.1Multiple Substitution Analysis of Feeder Technologies
D.2Multiple Substitution Analysis -- Feeder Percentage of Access Lines
D.3Feeder Fiber Carrier in the Baseband Substitution Universe
D.4Feeder Fiber in Baseband Substitution Universe -- Percentage of Access Lines
D.5Feeder Fiber in the Baseband Substitution Universe -- Percentage of Access Lines
E.1Part 1. Home Digital Services Forecasts -- All Digital Services
E.1Part 2. Home Digital Services Forecasts -- 1.5 Mb/s & Above
E.1Part 3. Home Digital Services Forecasts -- 6 Mb/s, 24 Mb/s, and 100 Mb/s & Above
E.2Home Digital Subscribers by Data Rate -- Summary
E.3Required Availability to Serve Home Digital Subscribers -- Summary
E.4Home Digital Subscribers -- Average Data Rate
E.5Home Digital Service Availability on Fiber
E.6Home Digital Required Availability -- All Scenarios
E.7Transition Parameters for Computing Middle Scenario -- Home Fiber
E.8Home Digital Availability on Fiber -- Early Scenario
E.9Home Digital Availability on Fiber -- Middle Scenario
E.10Home Digital Availability on Fiber -- Late Scenario
E.11Home Digital Required Availability on xDSL -- Early Scenario
E.12Home Digital Required Availability on xDSL -- Middle Scenario
E.13Home Digital Required Availability on xDSL -- Late Scenario
E.14Part 1. Digital Services Forecasts, Small Business Locations -- Summary
E.14Part 2. Digital Services Forecasts, Small Business Locations -- All Digital Services
E.14Part 3. Digital Services Forecasts, Small Business Locations -- 1.5 Mb/s & Above
E.15ISDN Subscribers -- Percentage of Small Business Locations
E.16ISDN Availability -- Percentage of Access Lines
E.17Required Availability of Digital Services to Small Business Locations -- Summary
E.18Digital Service Availability on Fiber -- Small Business Locations
E.19Transition Parameters for Computing the Middle Scenario -- Small Business Fiber
E.20Digital Services Forecasts -- Medium Business Locations Served by Fiber
E.21Medium Business Locations Served by Distribution Fiber
E.22Fiber to Large Business Locations
E.23Digital Service Availability on Fiber -- All Households & Business Locations Weighted by Number of Locations
E.24Digital Service Availability on Fiber -- All Households & Business Locations Weighted by Number of Access Lines
F.1Multiple Substitution Analysis of Switching Technologies
F.2Multiple Substitution Analysis -- Switching
F.3Digital Switching -- Fisher-Pry Plots
F.4Digital Switching in the Analog SPC Substitution Universe -- Percentage of Access Lines
F.5Digital Switching in the Analog SPC Substitution Universe -- Historical and Regression
F.6Digital Switching in the Electromechanical Substitution Universe -- Percentage of Access Lines
F.7Digital Switching in the Electromechanical Substitution Universe -- Historical and Regression

Pricing Information  [back to top]

July 1997, 200 pages, Softcover, Sponsored by the TTFG, ISBN 1-884154-08-5

US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery
US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada

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