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Futures' Features Archive

 

 

Futures' Features is TFI's free e-letter informing clients and contacts of new TFI new forecasting and telecom reports and white papers, dates of upcoming seminars and conferences, technology management insights, and special offers for our readers. This document includes earlier, archived issues of the e-letter. Subscribe to Futures' Features.


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Depreciation Lives for New Fiber Optic Cable in the Local Exchange Network

Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. and Ray L. Hodges
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This report documents the changes in TFI's recommended depreciation life for newly-installed fiber optic cable in the local exchange network. TFI's prior recommendation was 15 to 20 years, which reflected the combined impacts of physical mortality, technological substitution, and access line losses due to competition. TFI's new recommendation is 20 to 25 years. This applies to the fiber cable that is going into the massive network upgrades such as AT&T's Project Lightspeed and Verizon's FiOS. The new recommendation recognizes that the ILECs are making these investments with full knowledge that the market is competitive. Also, there is no obvious technological replacement for the full-spectrum fiber the ILECs are now placing.

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Report Cover

Forecasts for Local Exchange Switching Equipment

Ray L. Hodges and Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D.
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Incumbent local exchange carriers (ILECs) still mostly use traditional circuit switching equipment for voice services. This represents a tremendous sunk investment: $62.5 billion in digital circuit switching at year-end 2006. Newer competitors are using VoIP (voice over Internet protocol) switching, which are significantly less expensive and much more flexible, especially in offering integrated applications. This study examines the main options available to ILECs regarding the future of their circuit switches and provides recommendations for depreciation lives.

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Forecasts for Higher Bandwidth Broadband Services

Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. , Ray L. Hodges, and Joseph Savage
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This report forecasts the increase in broadband data rates and discusses the applications, especially IP Video, driving the increase. It also covers the current leaders --South Korea, Japan, and Italy. By 2006, U.S. broadband penetration will likely reach 50% and a shift to data rates of 24 Mb/s to 100 Mb/s will have begun. By 2010, 75% broadband penetration is likely, with 10% to 20% of households subscribing to very high-speed-broadband.

Featured Graph: Broadband Households by Nominal Data Rate, Percentage of Households
Featured Graph: Provisional Forecast of U.S. Households Using High-Definition IP Video

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Report Cover

Depreciation Lives for Fiber Optic Cables in the Local Exchange

Ray L. Hodges and Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. back to top

This report addresses the economic life of single-mode fiber optic cable installed by incumbent local exchange carriers (ILECs) in the local exchange network. The depreciation lives of these cables are derived from analysis of demand, technology substitution, physical mortality, and competitive factors. The technology and competitive issues driving network changes are explained in detail.

Featured Graph: Substitution of Advanced Fiber for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable Based on Interoffice and Feeder Fiber for Metallic Substitutions

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Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Review & Update

Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Review & Update

Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. and Ray L. Hodges
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This report reviews recent TFI forecasts for the North American local exchange network, covering switching, circuit equipment, and outside plant. The TFI forecasts provide a reasoned, realistic view of the technological and competitive changes occurring in the communications industry. The report includes TFI's latest recommendations on depreciation lives for local exchange telephone plant, accounting for technology displacement and loss of access lines due to competition.

Featured Graph: Substitution of Fiber Optic Cable for Metallic Cable in the Residential Distribution Network

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Technology Forecasts for Local Exchange Circuit Equipment cover

Technology Forecasts for Local Exchange Circuit Equipment

Ray L. Hodges
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This report provides an update and comparison to earlier forecasts conducted by Technology Futures, and describes and quantifies the impact of new technologies such as xDSL and dense wave division multiplexing. Circuit equipment investment is growing over 10% per year, while telephone plant in service is growing less than 5% since more functionality is being booked to the circuit category. This report forecasts the transitions and quantifies the rate of obsolescence of the significant and growing embedded investment in circuit equipment.

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The Impacts of Competition and Technology on Local Exchange Outside Plant Assets cover

The Impacts of Competition and Technology on Local Exchange Outside Plant Assets

Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D.
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This study presents our most recent forecasts of the impact of new technology and competition on local exchange outside plant assets. The study provides reasoned, quantitative information about the likely pace of change. Although these forecasts have implications for many types of decisions -- ranging from R&D to market strategy to pricing --the primary focus is on the management of capital, especially as it relates to depreciation and valuation. The result is a projection of the economic obsolescence of the ILECs' metallic outside plant.

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The Impacts of Competition and Technology on Local Exchange Switching Assets cover

The Impacts of Competition and Technology on Local Exchange Switching Assets

Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D.
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This study estimates the impact of competition on narrowband local exchange switches, especially as it relates to obsolescence and depreciation lives. The study addresses access line competition from wireless, resellers, cable companies, and other full-service providers. It also addresses the displacement of voice usage by wireless and e-communications.

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Technology Forecasts for Local Exchange Switching Equipment Cover

Technology Forecasts for Local Exchange Switching Equipment

Ray L. Hodges and Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D.
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This report addresses issues related to the current trend of ATM/IP packet switching and its impact on the embedded digital circuit switches of incumbent LECs. The report also includes a technology description and assessment of optical switching. It provides an update and comparisons to earlier forecasts conducted by Technology Futures, Inc. in 1986, 1989, 1992, 1994, and 1997, which were remarkably accurate in identifying the technology substitutions and predicting the pace of change.

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Telecom Access Tech Cover

Telecommunications Access Technologies

Overview and Competitive Assessment
Ray L. Hodges
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This new report from Technology Futures provides a good, concise overview of the competitive access technologies that will impact the local exchange network.

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Economic Life Techniques Cover

Comparison of Economic Life Techniques

Stephen L. Barreca
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"This report demonstrates, through actual case studies, that traditional mortality analysis is not an adequate predictor of the end of the life cycle when technological obsolescence, not physical life limitations, is the driving force."
-- Tony Flesch, GTE Operations

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Wireless vs. Wireline Cover

Wireless vs. Wireline for Voice Services
Forecasts and Impacts

Third Edition
Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. and Ray L. Hodges
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The authors analyze the competitive threat to the LECs from the emerging wireless alternative for voice communications. The competitive impacts are reported in terms of a variety of variables, for example, access lines lost and message and non-message revenue lost. The competitive impact on the average remaining life (ARL) of the LEC copper distribution infrastructure is also measured. The ARLs include not only the effects due to competition, but also the effect of the LEC transition to fiber. Our results indicate that alternative voice communication systems are potent threats and that the ARLs of LEC voice-related infrastructure will very likely be between 6.5 and 7.3 years.

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TLEN Transforming the Local Exchange Network:
Analyses and Forecasts of Technology Change

Second Edition
Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D., Ray L. Hodges, and Adrian J. Poitras
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This latest edition provides a technical update to the technology forecasts and analyses of the replacement of older telecom technologies in outside plant, switching equipment, and circuit equipment with new high-speed, high-bandwidth telecom technologies by the LECs. Included are forecasts for fiber optics, SONET, and ATM, as well as an update of depreciation lives.

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AVS Advanced Video Services

Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D., Curt Rogers, and Ray L. Hodges
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This in-depth research report forecasts the availability and adoption of advanced video services (AVS), particularly by the terrestrial cable and telephone networks. Included are likely technology adoption strategies of some newcomers to the video industry -- and assessments of the impact on their existing networks.

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CTT Computer Technology Trends

Adrian J. Poitras and Ray L. Hodges
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This insightful report focuses on the effects of technical progress in computers, along with continually expanding requirements and utility. Also covered are the rapid obsolescence and replacement of both existing and new computer assets and related equipment.

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Depreciation Lives for Telecommunications Equipment:
Review and Update


Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D., Ray L. Hodges, and Adrian J. Poitras
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This 1995 report updates the calculations for depreciation lives and summarizes the results of Technology Futures, Inc. 1994 research report, Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Analyses and Forecasts of Technology Change.

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Wireless and Cable Voice Services Cover Wireless and Cable Voice Services

Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. and Curt Rogers
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This timely report addresses the magnitude and timing of the impact of wireless and cable competition on the LEC's wireline voice services. The authors, Vanston and Rogers, analyze the impacts and forecast subscribers and prices for wireless and cable voice services.

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Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Analyses and Forecasts of Technology Change

1994 Edition
Lawrence K. Vanston

This research report quantifies the replacement of older telecom technologies with new high-speed, high-bandwidth telecom technologies -fiber optics, SONET, ATM- by the LECs. It is focused primarily on the management of capital, including both the realistic assessment of the usefulness and longevity of existing assets, as well as the need for new investment to provide the basis for earnings, growth, competitiveness, and satisfied customers in the future.

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NTQ

NTQ (New Telecom Quarterly): New Horizons in Telecommunications

The evolution of the telecom industry will mean success for some businesses and failure for many others. This provocative journal was designed to give decision-makers the knowledge necessary to recognize and exploit emerging markets and technologies. NTQ is targeted to senior-level executives, professionals, and scholars, and provides strategic information on telecom technologies and markets, business opportunities, and competitive analysis. Published by TFI from 1993 through 1998, many of the articles still prove to be interesting and informative today.


Personal Communications: Perspectives, Forecasts and Impacts
Ralph C. Lenz and Lawrence K. Vanston

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New Telecom Services

The New Telecommunications Services for Business and Society: 1990-2010 report series was sponsored by the Telecommunications Technology Forecasting Group. The objective was to quantitatively forecast new telecommunications services and their impact on technology adoption in the public network.
 
New Telecommunications Services and the Public Telephone Network
Lawrence K. Vanston
 
Telecommunications for Television/Advanced Television: Forecasts of Markets and Technologies
Lawrence K. Vanston, Julia A. Marsh, and Susan M. Hinton
 
Video Communications: Forecasts of Markets and Technologies
Lawrence K. Vanston, Julia A. Marsh, and Susan M. Hinton
 
Local Area Network Interconnection: Forecasts of Markets and Technologies
Bruce R. Kravitz and Lawrence K. Vanston
 
Interactive Multimedia and Telecommunications: Forecasts of Markets and Technologies
Julia A. Marsh and Lawrence K. Vanston
 
Computer-Based Imaging and Telecommunications: Forecasts of Markets and Technologies
Lawrence K. Vanston, Samia El-Badry-Nance, William J. Kennedy, and Nancy E. Lux
 
A Facsimile of the Future: Forecasts of the Fax Markets and Technologies
Lawrence K. Vanston, William J. Kennedy, and Samia El-Badry-Nance

A Critical Examination of the Future Utilization and Application of Cellular Technology in Telecommunications

Published 1988, Bound Softcover, 54 pages

AND

Wireless Telephony Market Update: A Quantitative Projection of U.S. Markets

Ralph C. Lenz

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Future Technology in the Local Telecommunications Network: An Expert-Opinion Survey

Lawrence K. Vanston and William J. Kennedy
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