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Wireless Cover

Wireless vs. Wireline for Voice Services
Forecasts and Impacts
Third Edition

Ray L. Hodges & Lawrence K. Vanston

Description  [back to top]

This new report from Technology Futures provides an update to our 1993 and 1995 forecasts of growth in cellular/PCS subscribers and usage and their impact on the wireline operations of local exchange carriers.

To date, cellular service has primarily been a complementary service to wireline service in North America. This is expected to change as the new PCS providers bring ample capacity online to compete directly with the local exchange carriers, first for usage and ultimately for access. Some competition will come without apparent deliberate effort by wireless providers -- customers will simply use their wireless phones more at the expense of wireline.

The business case for competition with wireline is simple. Major wireless providers and any number of resellers and small providers will have digital technology, which will increase capacity, battery life, and quality -- at lower costs. More capacity, falling costs, and more competitors will result in lower prices -- which inevitably will result in more customers and higher usage. With more wireless customers and lower prices, usage and ultimately access will be diverted from wireline.

This comprehensive report:

Key Findings From This Latest TFI Report  [back to top]

Wireless vs. Wireline for Voice Services analyzes and forecasts:

Who should read this report  [back to top]

Table of Contents  [back to top]

Chapter One: Introduction and Summary
Chapter Two: Cellular/PCS Subscriber and Price Forecasts
Cellular/PCS Subscriber Demand
Cellular/PCS Prices
Chapter Three: Competitive Impacts on the Wireline Network
Cellular/PCS Impact on Wireline Voice Minutes-of-Use
Cellular/PCS Impact on Wireline Access Lines
Cellular/PCS Impact on Wireline Revenue
Chapter Four: Impacts of Wireline Cash Flows on Depreciation Lives
Impact on Wireline Depreciation Lives
Appendix: Forecasts for Wireline Data Users

List of Exhibits  [back to top]

2.1Exhibit U.S. Cellular/PCS Subscribers -- Percentage of U.S. Population Age 15 and Older
2.2U.S. Cellular/PCS Subscribers
2.3U.S. Cellular/PCS Subscribers (table)
2.4Monthly Price for Cellular/PCS Service (250 Minutes)
2.5Cellular/PCS Prices
3.1Basic Model of Wireless/Wireline Competition
3.2Cellular/PCS Penetration and the Percentage of Wireline Minutes by Customers
3.3ARelationship Between Cellular/PCS Price and Remaining Wireline Minutes from Cellular/PCS Customers -- Unadjusted
3.3BRelationship Between Cellular/PCS Price and Remaining Wireline Minutes from Cellular/PCS Customers
3.4Cellular/PCS Impacts on Wireline Voice Usage
3.5Wireline Voice Usage and Access Lines Remaining from Cellular/PCS Customers
3.6Relationship Between Lost Minutes and Lost Access Lines
3.7Cellular/PCS Impacts on Wireline Access Lines
3.8Forecasting Logic -- Number of Wireline Access Lines
3.9LEC Wireline Access Lines
3.10Cellular/PCS Impacts on Wireline Revenue
3.11Logic for Voice Usage Revenue Model
3.12Voice Usage Revenue Remaining from Cellular/PCS Customers
3.13Total Base Revenue Remaining
4.1Wireline Cash Flow Projections
4.2Wireline Cash Flow Depreciation Model
4.3Cash Flow-Based Depreciation Model -- Percentage of Base Surviving
A.1Wireline Data Users

Pricing Information  [back to top]

July 1998, 41 pages, Sponsored by the TTFG, ISBN 1-884154-10-7

US $45 Electronic Delivery
US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery
US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada

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