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Technology Forecasts for Local Exchange Circuit Equipment

Technology Forecasts for Local Exchange Circuit Equipment
Ray L. Hodges

Description  [back to top]

This report provides an update and comparison to earlier forecasts conducted by Technology Futures, and describes and quantifies the impact of new technologies such as xDSL and dense wave division multiplexing. Circuit equipment investment is growing over 10% per year, while telephone plant in service is growing less than 5% since more functionality is being booked to the circuit category. This report forecasts the transitions and quantifies the rate of obsolescence of the significant and growing embedded investment in circuit equipment.

Key Findings From This Latest TFI Report  [back to top]

Who should read this report?  [back to top]

Table of Contents  [back to top]

Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Circuit Overview
Chapter 3
Analog to Digital
Chapter 4
  • Comparison to Previous Forecasts
  • Remaining Lives for Pre-SONET Equipment
Chapter 5
Chapter 6
Advanced Optical Networks
  • Impact of Advanced Optical Networks
Chapter 7
Investment Mapping & Life Calculations
  • Investment Mapping
  • Life Calculations
Chapter 8
Survey Description & Results
  • Part 1—Loop Circuit Equipment
  • Part 2—Interoffice Transmission
  • Part 3—Interoffice Bandwidth Management (Crossconnect & Multiplexing)
  • Part 4—Outside Plant Modernization Plans
  • Part 5—ATM/Packet Expert Survey
  • Current Investment Breakout
Chapter 9
Summary & Conclusions
Appendix A
Circuit Equipment
  • Analog Test and Miscellaneous
  • Digital Test
  • Metallic and Pre-SONET Fiber DLC
  • SONET Fiber DLC
  • Transport T-Carrier
  • Optical Transport (Pre-SONET)
  • Optical Transport (SONET)
  • WDM and DWDM
  • Packet Type Transport (Non-Switching)
  • Asymmetrical Digital Subscriber Line
  • Other and Analog Miscellaneous

List of Exhibits  [back to top]

3.1 Analog Circuit Survivors
3.2 Tabular Data
4.1 Interoffice SONET
4.2 Interoffice SONET Equipment–Percentage of Fiber Transmission Capacity
4.3 Loop SONET
4.4 Loop SONET Equipment–Percentage of Fiber Transmission Capacity
4.5 Adoption of SONET Equipment Summary–Percentage of Equipment on SONET
4.6 Comparison to 1994 & 1997 SONET Forecast
4.7 Comparison of SONET Adoption to the 1994 Forecast
4.8 Pre-SONET Survivors
4.9 Pre-SONET Circuit Equipment Survivors
5.1 Households Using Digital Services–Minimum Competitive Data Rates
5.2 ADSL Survivors
5.3 Tabular Data
5.4 xDSL Households–Middle Scenario
6.1 Transition to IP/DWDM
6.2 ATM, SONET & WDM Survivors
6.3 Tabular Data
7.1 Investment Mapping Summary
7.2 Composite Survivor Curve–Tabular Data
7.3 Composite Survivor Curve for Circuit Equipment

Pricing Information  [back to top]

October 2001, 67 pages, ISBN 1-884154-17-4

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