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Technology Forecasts for Local Exchange Circuit Equipment Ray L. Hodges Description Key findings Who should read this report? Table of contents Exhibits Pricing/Ordering information Sponsored by TTFG

Description  [back to top]

This report provides an update and comparison to earlier forecasts conducted by Technology Futures, and describes and quantifies the impact of new technologies such as xDSL and dense wave division multiplexing. Circuit equipment investment is growing over 10% per year, while telephone plant in service is growing less than 5% since more functionality is being booked to the circuit category. This report forecasts the transitions and quantifies the rate of obsolescence of the significant and growing embedded investment in circuit equipment.

Key Findings From This Latest TFI Report  [back to top]

• Circuit equipment in service as of 1/1/2001 comprises 23% of the ILECs' $355 billion plant investment and has an average remaining life of 3.2 years.
• The range of remaining lives for categories of equipment within the account range from 3.0 years for pre-SONET digital equipment (over 60% of the circuit investment) to 7.7 years for ADSL (currently less than 2% of circuit investment). However, the life for some of the early product lines of ADSL may be much shorter.
• SONET equipment currently represents over 25% of the circuit account investment. However, the vast majority is at the OC-48 level or below and will continuously be made obsolete by higher SONET levels and/or DWDM. The ARL for this category is 3.4 years.

Who should read this report?  [back to top]

• Local exchange carriers
• Competitive LECs
• Interexchange carriers
• Internet service providers
• Telecom equipment manufacturers
• Regulatory personnel
• Depreciation professionals

Table of Contents  [back to top]

Chapter 1

Introduction

Chapter 2

Circuit Overview

Chapter 3

Analog to Digital

Chapter 4

SONET for Pre-SONET

• Comparison to Previous Forecasts
• Remaining Lives for Pre-SONET Equipment

Chapter 5

VDSL & FITL for DSL

Chapter 6

Advanced Optical Networks

• Impact of Advanced Optical Networks

Chapter 7

Investment Mapping & Life Calculations

• Investment Mapping
• Life Calculations

Chapter 8

Survey Description & Results

• Part 1—Loop Circuit Equipment
• Part 2—Interoffice Transmission
• Part 3—Interoffice Bandwidth Management (Crossconnect & Multiplexing)
• Part 4—Outside Plant Modernization Plans
• Part 5—ATM/Packet Expert Survey
• Current Investment Breakout

Chapter 9

Summary & Conclusions

Appendix A

Circuit Equipment

• Analog Test and Miscellaneous
• Digital Test
• Metallic and Pre-SONET Fiber DLC
• SONET Fiber DLC
• Transport T-Carrier
• Optical Transport (Pre-SONET)
• Optical Transport (SONET)
• WDM and DWDM
• Packet Type Transport (Non-Switching)
• Asymmetrical Digital Subscriber Line
• Other and Analog Miscellaneous

List of Exhibits  [back to top]

3.1	Analog Circuit Survivors
3.2	Tabular Data
4.1	Interoffice SONET
4.2	Interoffice SONET Equipment–Percentage of Fiber Transmission Capacity
4.3	Loop SONET
4.4	Loop SONET Equipment–Percentage of Fiber Transmission Capacity
4.5	Adoption of SONET Equipment Summary–Percentage of Equipment on SONET
4.6	Comparison to 1994 & 1997 SONET Forecast
4.7	Comparison of SONET Adoption to the 1994 Forecast
4.8	Pre-SONET Survivors
4.9	Pre-SONET Circuit Equipment Survivors
5.1	Households Using Digital Services–Minimum Competitive Data Rates
5.2	ADSL Survivors
5.3	Tabular Data
5.4	xDSL Households–Middle Scenario
6.1	Transition to IP/DWDM
6.2	ATM, SONET & WDM Survivors
6.3	Tabular Data
7.1	Investment Mapping Summary
7.2	Composite Survivor Curve–Tabular Data
7.3	Composite Survivor Curve for Circuit Equipment

Pricing Information  [back to top]

October 2001, 67 pages, ISBN 1-884154-17-4

Sponsored by the TTFG

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