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Forecasts for Local Exchange Switching Equipment

Forecasts for Local Exchange Switching Equipment
Ray L. Hodges and Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D.


Description  [back to top]

Incumbent local exchange carriers (ILECs) still mostly use traditional circuit switching equipment for voice services. This represents a tremendous sunk investment: $62.5 billion in digital circuit switching at year-end 2006. Newer competitors are using VoIP (voice over Internet protocol) switching, which are significantly less expensive and much more flexible, especially in offering integrated applications. This study examines the main options available to ILECs regarding the future of their circuit switches and provides recommendations for depreciation lives.

Table of Contents  [back to top]

Chapter 1: Introduction and Summary
Chapter 2: The Dramatic Decline in Narrowband Access Lines
Chapter 3: Packet Switch Technology
Chapter 4: Mass Conversion
Chapter 5: Integrated Voice Applications
Chapter 6: Depreciation Analysis

List of Figures  [back to top]

1.1

Narrowband Access U.S. Industry
1.2 Pre-Conversion Costs plus Connection Costs by Mass-Conversion Year for Sample FiOS Wire Center
1.3 Percentage of ILEC Access Lines on Packet Switches: 2007 Base Forecast
1.4 ILEC Narrowband Access Lines on Circuit and Packet Switching (Base Forecast)
1.5Percentage of ILEC Access Lines on Packet Switches: 2007 Base and Late Forecasts
1.6 Comparison of 2005 and 2007 Forecasts
1.7 Survivor Curves for Digital Circuit Switching-Base Forecast
2.1 Narrowband Access U.S. Industry
2.2 Residential Narrowband Access Lines Displaced by Wireless, Broadband, or Non-Carrier VoIP
2.3 U. S. Wireless Subscribers
2.4 Wireless-Only Market Share
2.5 Cable Telephony Market Share
3.1Network Architectures for Local-Exchange Softswitch in Local Telephony
3.2Key Themes in the Evolution of the Network
3.3Next-Generation Network Architecture
3.4Cisco's Implementation of the PacketCable Architecture
3.5 PacketCable Signaling Architecture
3.6 Percentage of ILEC Access Lines on Packet Switches: 2007 Base Forecast
3.7 ILEC Narrowband Access Lines on Circuit and Packet Switching (Base Forecast)
3.8Percentage of ILEC Access Lines on Packet Switches: 2007 Base Forecast and Late Scenario
3.9 Comparison of 2005 and 2007 Forecasts
4.1 Pre-Conversion Costs plus Connection Costs by Mass-Conversion Year for Sample VHS Wire Center
6.1Survivor Curves for Digital Circuit Switching-Base Forecast
6.2Survivor Curves for Digital Circuit Switching-Late Scenario

Pricing/Ordering Information  [back to top]

November 2007, 42 pages, ISBN 1-884154-30-1

Sponsored by the TTFG

US $995 Electronic Delivery