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Technology Forecasts for Local Exchange Switching Equipment |
This report addresses issues related to the current trend of ATM/IP packet switching and its impact on the embedded digital circuit switches of incumbent LECs. The report also includes a technology description and assessment of optical switching. It provides an update and comparisons to earlier forecasts conducted by Technology Futures, Inc. in 1986, 1989, 1992, 1994, and 1997, which were remarkably accurate in identifying the technology substitutions and predicting the pace of change.
Key Findings From This Latest TFI Report [back to top]
Who should read this report? [back to top]
Table of Contents [back to top]
- Chapter One
- Introduction
- Chapter Two
- Switching Technology
- ATM and IP Switching
- Chapter Three
- LEC Transition Strategies
- Transition Alternatives
- Chapter Four
- Forecasts for Digital Switching and ATM/IP
- The Evolution of Circuit Switching
- Forecasts for the Adoption of Digital Switching
- Comparisons to Previous Forecasts
- Forecasts of Modular Upgrades to Digital Switches
- Categories of Switch Modules
- Distribution of Investment
- Historical Evolution of Switch Modules
- Recent Updates to Existing Digital Switch Architectures
- Composite Lives for Digital Switches
- Forecast of Processor/Memory Upgrades
- Forecast of Switch Fabric Upgrades
- Forecast of Trunk Interface Upgrades
- Forecast of DLC Interface Upgrades
- Forecast of Baseband Line Interface Upgrades
- Chapter Five
- The Adoption of Packet Switching
- Forecast for ATM/IP Switching Adoption
- ATM Implementation Alternatives
- Summary
- Appendix A
- Substitution Analysis and the Fisher-Pry Model
- Forecasting with Fisher-Pry
- Extensions of Fisher-Pry
- Projecting the Market Share of the Old Technology
- Projecting the Number of Units
- Relationship to Product Life Cycles
- Forecasting Depreciation Lives
- Company Forecasts
- Appendix B
- Forecasting with Multiple Substitution
- Appendix C
- Multiple Substitution Analysis for Digital Switching
List of Exhibits [back to top]
2.1 Growth in Data Traffic 3.1 5ESS Evolves with 7R/E Packet Driver 3.2 Nortel's View of the ATM/IP Future 3.3 Lucent's View of the ATM/IP Future 4.1 Switching Technology Shares 4.2 Switching Technology Shares--Percentage of Access Lines 4.3 Multiple Substitution Analysis of Switching Technologies 4.4 Comparison to 1989, 1994, and 1997 SPC Switching Forecasts 4.5 Comparison to 1989, 1994, 1997, and 2000 Digital Switching Forecasts 4.6 Generic Switching Architecture 4.7 Nortel DMS-100 Architecture 4.8 Lucent 5ESS Architecture 4.9 Digital Switching Investment Distribution--Results from Various Studies 4.10 Evolution of Nortel DMS-100 4.11 Evolution of the Lucent 5ESS 4.12 Nortel S/DMS SuperNode Architecture 4.13 Lucent 5ESS-2000 Architecture 4.14 Digital Switching--Modular Retirement Analysis 4.15 Percentage Survivor Curves for Modular Categories of Digital Switching 4.16 Composite Survivor Curve for Digital Switching 4.17 Survivor Curves for Digital Switch Modules 4.18 Baseband Digital Switch Terminations--Percentage of Access Lines 4.19 Baseband Digital Switch Terminations--Digital and Analog Percentage of Access Lines 5.1 Adoption of ATM Switching--Percentage of Equivalent Access Lines 5.2 ATM Switching--Percentage of Equivalent Access Lines 5.3A Early Scenario--ATM Equivalent Access Lines by Implementation Alternative 5.3B Late Scenario (Direct Transition)--ATM Equivalent Access Lines by Implementation Alternative 5.3C Late Scenario (Primary Fabric Transition)--ATM Equivalent Access Lines by Implementation Alternative 5.4A Early Scenario Non-ATM Switching Survivor Curves--Percentage of Equivalent Access Lines 5.4B Late Scenario (Direct Transition) Non-ATM Switching Survivor Curves--Percentage of Equivalent Access Lines 5.4C Late Scenario (Primary Fabric Transition) Non-ATM Switching Survivor Curves--Percentage of Equivalent Access Lines 5.5 ATM Implementation Projections--Percentage of ATM Equivalent Access Lines 5.6 Switching Technology Shares--Late ATM Scenarios
Pricing Information [back to top]
include("foot.php"); ?>March 2000, 84 pages, Sponsored by the TTFG, ISBN 1-884154-14-X
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