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fiber LEC cover

Depreciation Lives for Fiber Optic Cables in the Local Exchange
Ray L. Hodges & Lawrence K. Vanston


Description  [back to top]

This report addresses the economic life of single-mode fiber optic cable installed by incumbent local exchange carriers (ILECs) in the local exchange network. The depreciation lives of these cables are derived from analysis of demand, technology substitution, physical mortality, and competitive factors. The technology and competitive issues driving network changes are explained in detail.

Key Findings From This Latest TFI Report  [back to top]

Who should read this report?  [back to top]

Table of Contents  [back to top]

Chapter One: Introduction and Executive Summary
Depreciation Background
Physical Mortality
Technology Obsolescence
Technology-Driven Substitution
TFI Recommendations for Non-Metallic Cable Depreciation
Chapter Two: Mortality Analysis
Aging
Hazards
Mortality Curves
Chapter Three: Competitive Factors
Competition from CLECs
Competition from Cable Television
Wireless Competition
Competition from Broadband
Forecasts for Competition in the Local Exchange
Chapter Four: Technology Obsolescence
Background
Technical Issues
Advantages of Advanced Fiber
Full Spectrum Fiber
Chapter Five: Demand-Driven Substitution
Background
Demand-Driven Forecasts
Chapter Six: Technology-Driven Substitution
Chapter Seven: Conclusions
Appendix: Forecasting Methods
Example
Impact of Competition
Estimation of Depreciation Lives
Contrast with the Mortality Approach

List of Exhibits with Featured Graph  [back to top]

Figure 1.1 Age-Survivor Curve for Fiber Optic Cable
Figure 1.2 Survivor Curve (Installed Base)
Figure 1.3 Substitution of Advanced Fiber for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable — Based on Distribution Fiber Adoption Scenarios
Figure 1.4 Mortality and Technology Survivor Curves for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable — Technology Substitution Based on Interoffice and Feeder Fiber for Metallic Substitutions (Not Accounting for Competitive Impacts)
Figure 1.5 Combined Survivor Curves for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable — Technology Substitution Based on Middle Scenario Distribution Fiber Adoption
Figure 1.6 Substitution of Advanced Fiber for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable — Based on Interoffice and Feeder Fiber for Metallic Substitutions
Figure 1.7 Mortality and Technology Survivor Curves for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable — Technology Substitution Based on Interoffice and Feeder Fiber for Metallic Substitutions (Not Accounting for Competitive Impacts)
Figure 1.8 Combined Survivor Curves for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable — Technology Substitution Based on Interoffice and Feeder Fiber for Metallic Substitutions
Figure 2.1 Age-Survivor Curve for Fiber Optic Cable
Figure 2.2 Survivor Curve (Installed Base)
Figure 3.1 U.S. Residential Switched Access Lines (Narrowband), Millions of Lines by Type
Figure 3.2 U.S. ILEC-Provisioned Residential Switched Access Lines (Includes UNEs and Resale), Millions of Lines — Narrowband and Broadband
Figure 4.1 North American Data-Rate Projections
Figure 5.1 U.S. Broadband Households — TFI 2002 Forecast
Figure 5.2 Analog Modem and Broadband Data Rates
Figure 5.3 U.S. Broadband Households by Data Rate
Figure 5.4 Broadband Minimum Availability — 24 Mb/s & Above
Figure 5.5 Substitution of Advanced Fiber for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable — Based on Distribution Fiber Adoption Scenarios
Figure 5.6 Mortality and Technology Survivor Curves for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable — Technology Substitution Based on Middle Scenario Distribution Fiber Adoption (Not Accounting for Competitive Impacts)
Figure 5.7 Combined Survivor Curves for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable — Technology Substitution Based on Middle Scenario Distribution Fiber Adoption
Figure 6.1 Substitution of Advanced Fiber for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable — Based on Interoffice and Feeder Fiber for Metallic Substitutions
Figure 6.2 Mortality and Technology Survivor Curves for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable — Technology Substitution Based on Interoffice and Feeder Fiber for Metallic Substitutions (Not Accounting for Competitive Impacts)
Figure 6.3 Combined Survivor Curves for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable — Technology Substitution Based on Interoffice and Feeder Fiber for Metallic Substitutions

Pricing Information  [back to top]

February 2003, 72 pages, Sponsored by the TTFG, ISBN 1-884154-20-4

US $495 Electronic Delivery
US $495 Hard Copy Mail Delivery
US $495 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada

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