This report addresses the economic life of single-mode fiber optic cable installed by incumbent local exchange carriers (ILECs) in the local exchange network. The depreciation lives of these cables are derived from analysis of demand, technology substitution, physical mortality, and competitive factors. The technology and competitive issues driving network changes are explained in detail.
Today's embedded standard single mode fiber cables are already obsolete for high-density, long-haul applications and may also become so in the local exchange.
There are three types of advanced fibers available today that have significant advantages when CWDM or DWDM are utilized.
TFI forecasts that approximately 95% of U.S. households will be online by 2020, and almost all of these will be broadband users.
Presently, there is very little fiber in the distribution plant. The timing of placing distribution is late enough that, in all likelihood, it will be advanced fiber. With long-haul fiber already using advanced fiber and newly placed distribution fiber also being advanced fiber, a bottleneck will be created in the middle of the network that contains the most outdated single-mode fiber.
TFI forecasts that, by 2010, ILECs will provision one-third fewer access lines than today, and that, by 2015, less than half as many. Competition will strand large quantities of network equipment — including fiber cables, reducing the economic life.
TFI continues to recommend a projection life of 15 to 20 years for non-metallic cable.
Figure 1.1 Age-Survivor Curve for Fiber Optic Cable
Figure 1.2 Survivor Curve (Installed Base)
Figure 1.3 Substitution of Advanced Fiber for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable — Based on Distribution Fiber Adoption Scenarios
Figure 1.4 Mortality and Technology Survivor Curves for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable — Technology Substitution Based on Interoffice and Feeder Fiber for Metallic Substitutions (Not Accounting for Competitive Impacts)
Figure 1.5 Combined Survivor Curves for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable — Technology Substitution Based on Middle Scenario Distribution Fiber Adoption
Figure 1.6 Substitution of Advanced Fiber for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable — Based on Interoffice and Feeder Fiber for Metallic Substitutions
Figure 1.7 Mortality and Technology Survivor Curves for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable — Technology Substitution Based on Interoffice and Feeder Fiber for Metallic Substitutions (Not Accounting for Competitive Impacts)
Figure 1.8 Combined Survivor Curves for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable — Technology Substitution Based on Interoffice and Feeder Fiber for Metallic Substitutions
Figure 2.1 Age-Survivor Curve for Fiber Optic Cable
Figure 2.2 Survivor Curve (Installed Base)
Figure 3.1 U.S. Residential Switched Access Lines (Narrowband), Millions of Lines by Type
Figure 3.2 U.S. ILEC-Provisioned Residential Switched Access Lines (Includes UNEs and Resale), Millions of Lines — Narrowband and Broadband
Figure 4.1 North American Data-Rate Projections
Figure 5.1 U.S. Broadband Households — TFI 2002 Forecast
Figure 5.5 Substitution of Advanced Fiber for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable — Based on Distribution Fiber Adoption Scenarios
Figure 5.6 Mortality and Technology Survivor Curves for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable — Technology Substitution Based on Middle Scenario Distribution Fiber Adoption (Not Accounting for Competitive Impacts)
Figure 5.7 Combined Survivor Curves for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable — Technology Substitution Based on Middle Scenario Distribution Fiber Adoption
Figure 6.2 Mortality and Technology Survivor Curves for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable — Technology Substitution Based on Interoffice and Feeder Fiber for Metallic Substitutions (Not Accounting for Competitive Impacts)
Figure 6.3 Combined Survivor Curves for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable — Technology Substitution Based on Interoffice and Feeder Fiber for Metallic Substitutions