Energizing the Future Conference

IIF Telecom Forecasting Session

Presented by INFORMS

Austin, Texas
November 7, 2010

Forecasting New Technologies in Telecommunications: Past Experience and Future Directions

Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D., President, Technology Futures, Inc. (TFI)

Presentation Outline:

Forecasting new technologies requires judgment, knowledge and modeling skills in a world where success is relative and delayed. For 25 years, telecom has provided a rich forecasting environment with seismic transitions in broadband, wireless, fiber optics, the Internet, etc. The future is as promising. In this presentation I draw lessons from past forecasts, provide ideas about the future and explain how modeling skills from operations research apply to the fuzzy world of forecasting the future.

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