The Local Exchange Network in 2015

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The Local Exchange Network in 2015 coverLawrence K. Vanston

Key findings
Who should read this report?
Table of contents
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Description  [back to top]

It's 2015. Wondering where we'll be in the LE telecom world in 2015? This report gives forecasts for 2015 for broadband data rates, the impact of wireless, and the North America local exchange network, viewed from the perspective of 2001. It is based on published and unpublished forecasts by TFI that reflect logical extensions of current trends and are consistent with technology evolution principles.

Key Findings From This Latest TFI Report  [back to top]

Predictions for 2015:

  • The typical household subscribes to broadband service at 24 Mb/s to 100 Mb/s.
  • Medium and large businesses access the network directly with fiber at data rates from 2.4 Gb/s to 40 Gb/s.
  • Fiber dominates the outside plant, comprising 100% of the interoffice network, 97% of the feeder network, and 95% of the distribution network.
  • Switching is 100% packet-based on ATM and IP switches.
  • Almost 70% of North American households no longer have a standard wireline connection and use wireless or computer telephony instead.
  • The interoffice network is entirely fiber, with dense wave division multiplexing used on most routes.
  • Of the $355 billion of network investment in place in 2001, well under 10% is still in use in 2015.

Find out more about 2015! Free Download of The Local Exchange in 2015.

Who should read this report?  [back to top]

  • Technology Planners
  • Telecom Planners
  • Strategic Planners
  • Information Systems/Technology Managers
  • Local exchange carriers
  • Competitive LECs
  • Interexchange carriers
  • Internet service providers
  • Telecom equipment manufacturers
  • Regulatory personnel
  • Depreciation professionals

Table of Contents  [back to top]

Residential Customers
Business Customers
The Local Exchange Network
General Architecture
The Outside Plant
Baseband Copper
Circuit Equipment
Switching Equipment

List of Exhibits  [back to top]

1    The World of 1986

2    North American Online Households by Data Rate - Percentage of All Households

3    Adoption of 3G Wireless Technology - percentage of North American Population

4    Narrowband Access Lines - North American Households, 2015

5    The Local Exchange Network - 2015

6    State-of-the-Art Metro DWDM System - 2015

7    Percentage of Access Lines on Copper Feeder Cable

8    Deep Fiber Systems in Common Use in 2015

9A    Older PON Systems without DWDM

9B    Modern PON Systems with DWDM

10    Percentage of Distribution Distance on Copper

11    Diagram of an Eight-Fiber by n-Wavelengths WDM Switch

12    Survivors from SONET Investment in Place in 2010

13    Percentage of Households with 5 Mb/s & Below Broadband Access on DSL and Deep Fiber

14    Percentage of Access Lines Served on Circuit Switches

15    End of Switching Eras-Year Use of Switching Technology Fell Below 1% of Access Lines (Major U.S. Companies)

Pricing Information  [back to top]

December 2001, 28 pages, ISBN 1-884154-18-2

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