Forecasts of Access Line Competition in the Local Exchange
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Description
Key findings
Who should be interested in this report?
Table of contents
List of exhibits
Featured Graph
Pricing/Ordering information
Sponsored by TTFG
Competition is having a major impact on incumbent local exchange carriers (ILECs). For example, after years of high growth, the number of ILEC retail narrowband switched access lines peaked at 181.3 million lines in 1999 and has continuously declined since then, falling to 162.7 million lines by December 2002. This report documents TFI's latest forecasts of the future of competition in the local exchange and its impact on the ILECs.
Key Findings From This Latest TFI Report [back to top]
- Wireless, cable telephony, and broadband substitution is forecast to cause total ILEC narrowband switched access lines (including UNE and resale) to fall from 181 million at year-end 2002 to 100 million by year-end 2008 and to 50 million by 2013.
- Broadband will make up for some, but not all, of this shortfall. Assuming that ILECs retain reasonable broadband market share, total ILEC lines (including broadband) are forecast to fall from 189 million at year-end 2002 to 135 million by year-end 2008, stabilizing at about 100 million by 2013.
- In the long run, maintaining a reasonable share of the broadband market will require ILECs to offer very-high-speed broadband services (nominally, 24 Mb/s and above) in the 2006 timeframe.
- The transition to very-high-speed broadband will require very significant investment in loop fiber, packet switches, and advanced circuit equipment between now and 2015.
- The combined impact of technology substitution and competition on the depreciation lives (and value) of existing ILEC narrowband switching, copper cable, and conventional circuit equipment assets will be substantial.
Who should read this report? [back to top]
- Incumbent local exchange carriers
- Competitive LECs
- Interexchange carriers
- Internet service providers
- Telecom equipment manufacturers
- Regulatory personnel
- Depreciation professionals
Table of Contents [back to top]
- Chapter One: Introduction and Summary
- Forecast Overview
- Key Forecasts
- Comparison to Previous Forecasts
- Impact on Depreciation Lives
- Forecasting Approach
- Chapter Two: Depreciation Lives for Local Exchange Network Equipment
- Metallic Distribution Cable
- Switching Equipment
- Circuit Equipment
- Chapter Three: Residential Narrowband Competition
- Impact of Broadband and Wireless on Residential Access Lines
- Forecast of Competition from CLECs
- Summary Impact of Competition on ILEC Residential Narrowband Access Lines
- Chapter Four: Residential Broadband Competition
- Forecasts for Residential Broadband
- Cable Modem and DSL Market Shares of Wireline Broadband
- Wireless Competition for Residential Broadband
- Forecast for Fixed Wireless Residential Broadband
- Transition to Very-High-Speed Broadband
- ILEC Broadband Connections Summary
- Chapter Five: Non-Residential Narrowband Competition
- Impact of Broadband and Wireless on Non-Residential Access Lines
- Forecast of Competition from CLECs
- Summary Impact of Competition on ILEC Non-Residential Narrowband Access Lines
- Chapter Six: Non-Residential Broadband Competition
- Forecasts for Non-Residential Broadband
- Forecasts for Non-Residential Broadband by Technology Type
- Transition to Very-High-Speed Broadband
- ILEC Broadband Connections Summary
- Appendix A: Introduction to Technology Market Forecasting
- Processes and Patterns of Technology Adoption
- Mathematical Models for the Adoption of New Technology
- Using Technology Market Adoption Models for Forecasting
- Forecasting Quantities of Old and New Technologies
- Using Substitution Models to Estimate Additions and Sales
- Forecasting Growth Rates
- Experience with Forecasting with Substitution Models
- Conclusion
- Appendix B: Forecast Details
- Appendix C: Derivation of Historical Data
List of Exhibits with Featured Graph [back to top]
- Figure 1.1 Forecast Narrowband Access Lines by Carrier Type
- Figure 1.2 Forecast ILEC Narrowband Access Lines and Broadband Connections
- Figure 1.3 Additional Residential Narrowband Access Lines per Wireline Household
- Figure 1.4 Forecast Households Using Only Wireless or Broadband for Voice
- Figure 1.5 Forecast CLEC Percentage of Residential & Small Business Access Lines
- Figure 1.6 Forecast CLEC Percentage of Other Non-Residential Access Lines
- Figure 1.7 Cable Telephony Share of Residential Wireline Access Lines
- Figure 1.8 Forecast Residential and Small Business Broadband Connections
- Figure 1.9 Forecast Total Broadband Connections by Access Technology
- Figure 1.10 Comparison to 2002 Forecast: ILEC Access Lines and Broadband Connections
- Figure 2.1 Substitution of Fiber for Metallic Distribution Cable
- Figure 2.2 Survivor Curves for Metallic Distribution Cable
- Figure 2.3 Substitution of ATM/IP for Local Circuit Switching
- Figure 2.4 Forecast Resale/UNE Access Lines, ILEC/UNE Switched and CLEC-Switched
- Figure 2.5 Survivor Curves for Digital Switching
- Figure 2.6 Substitution of Very-High-Speed Broadband Circuit Equipment for DLC Equipment
- Figure 2.7 Survivor Curves for DLC Circuit Equipment
- Figure 3.1 Forecast Residential Wireline Narrowband Access Lines by Carrier Type
- Figure 3.2 Forecast Additional Residential Access Lines
- Figure 3.3 Forecast Households Using Only Wireless or Broadband for Voice
- Figure 3.4 Forecast CLEC Residential Access Lines, Percentage of Total Residential Wireline Access Lines
- Figure 3.5 Forecast CLEC Residential Access Lines (Millions)
- Figure 3.6 Forecast Access Lines Served by Cable Telephony, Percentage of Total Residential Wireline Access Lines
- Figure 3.7 Forecast Access Lines Served by Cable Telephony
- Figure 3.8 Forecast CLEC Residential Access Lines, Facilities-Based and Resale/UNE
- Figure 3.9 Forecast ILEC Provided Residential Access Lines, Retail and Resale/UNE
- Figure 4.1 Forecast Broadband Households, Percentage of Households
- Figure 4.2 Forecast Broadband Households by Access Technology
- Figure 4.3 Forecast Market Shares by Access Technology
- Figure 4.4 Forecast of DSL Market Share of Standard Broadband
- Figure 4.5 Forecast Fixed Wireless Residential Standard Broadband
- Figure 4.6 Broadband Households by Nominal Data Rate
- Figure 4.7 Trend in Residential Access Data Rates
- Figure 4.8 Forecast Adoption of Standard and Very-High-Speed Broadband
- Figure 4.9 Forecast ILEC Residential Broadband Connections
- Figure 5.1 Forecast Non-Residential Narrowband Wireline Access Lines by Carrier Type
- Figure 5.2 Forecast Non-Residential Wireline Access Lines
- Figure 5.3 Forecast Small Business Average Access Lines per Location
- Figure 5.4 Percentage of Small Business Peak Access Lines per Location Displaced by Wireless and Broadband
- Figure 5.5 Percentage of Other Non-Residential Peak Access Lines per Location Displaced by Wireless and Broadband
- Figure 5.6 Forecast Other Non-Residential Average Access Lines per Location
- Figure 5.7 Forecast CLEC Market Share of Small Business Access Lines
- Figure 5.8 Forecast CLEC Market Share of Other Non-Residential Access Lines
- Figure 5.9 Forecast CLEC and ILEC Small Business Access Lines (Millions)
- Figure 5.10 Forecast CLEC and ILEC Other Non-Residential Access Lines
- Figure 5.11 Forecast Facilities-Based Market Share of CLEC Non-Residential Wireline Access Lines
- Figure 5.12 Forecast Non-Residential Access Lines Served by Facilities-Based CLECs
- Figure 5.13 Forecast ILEC Provided Non-Residential Narrowband Access Lines
- Figure 6.1 Forecast Non-Residential Broadband Connections
- Figure 6.2 Forecast Adoption of Small Business Broadband Connections/Locations
- Figure 6.3 Forecast Adoption of Other Non-Residential Broadband Connections
- Figure 6.4 Forecast Small Business Broadband Connections by Access Technology
- Figure 6.5 Forecast Other Non-Residential Broadband Connections by Access Technology
- Figure 6.6 Forecast Small Business Broadband Connections by Access Technology, Percentage of Standard Broadband Connections
- Figure 6.7 Forecast of DSL Market Share of Standard Broadband, Percentage of Wireline Standard Small Business Connections
- Figure 6.8 Forecast Fixed Wireless Broadband to Small Businesses, Percentage of Small Business Locations
- Figure 6.9 Forecast Adoption of Very-High-Speed Broadband by Small Businesses
- Figure 6.10 Forecast Adoption of Very-High-Speed Broadband by Other Non-Residential Locations
- Figure 6.11 Forecast ILEC Small Business Broadband Connections
- Figure 6.12 Forecast ILEC Other Non-Residential Broadband Connections
Pricing Information [back to top]
December 2003, 180 pages, Sponsored by the TTFG, ISBN 1-884154-21-2
Texas residents add 7.25% (Austin, Texas 8.25%) sales tax.
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